Boston can make that happen by running an initial ball screen with his man, then a second one that targets Robinson. But the Giannis-less Bucks or the clenched Knicks offense leaves you much less vulnerable than a Celtics roster that can go at Robinson with Tatum, Brown, Brogdon, Smart, or White.Īdebayo is one of the best help defenders in basketball, but the Heat have a particularly difficult time when an opponent forces him to the perimeter and out of position. Miami’s second-most-used lineup in the playoffs is Lowry, Butler, Adebayo, Martin, and Robinson, a group that’s pounded the competition in 36 minutes. The Heat’s offense goes up a notch with Robinson, and their defense with him, in a 194-minute sample size, has been surprisingly solid. Miami is plus-16.8 points per 100 possessions when he’s on the court versus minus-1.4 when he sits. More notably, he’s appeared in every game after slipping in and out of Spo’s rotation the past couple of years. As one of the best movement shooters in basketball, Robinson has drilled 42.6 percent of his 3s in these playoffs. Duncan Robinson, on the other hand, may be a different story.
#Celtic and heat series#
Strus will play big minutes in this series regardless because Spoelstra needs his 3-point shooting and has no other door to open.
The action repeatedly created advantages for a muddy, turnover-prone offense that was in perpetual need of any edge it could find: It wasn’t the most efficient strategy, but when you watch the film, it’s easy to see why Boston kept going back to it over and over again.
In the 2022 conference finals, Boston had his man set 97 ball screens, which was more than anybody else on the team. Herro is no longer a target, but Strus will be. Knowing they have to put bodies in front of Tatum and Brown, will they stick with their most common starting five (Miami is 7-1 when Butler, Adebayo, Love, Max Strus, and Gabe Vincent start the game) or deny Boston’s All-NBA forwards another mismatch target and roll with Caleb Martin at the 4 instead? Spoelstra might try Love for Game 1, but assuming Butler will stick with Brown (his usual assignment), that unit has no one in it who can stay in front of Tatum. Now, against the explosive Celtics offense, which will limit whom Spoelstra can lean on, the Heat have several interesting dilemmas on their hands. The only team worse was … the Knicks, at 29.9 percent. Miami shot only 30.6 percent from behind the arc in Round 2. In Round 2, that sizzle fizzled out, as the Heat mustered only 112.6 points per 100 possessions ( a mark that would rank 25th in the regular season) against the Knicks defense, which was never very good and didn’t have Immanuel Quickley (who might be New York’s best defender) for the last three games. (Both numbers are a 2023 postseason high in any series.) Since they’re coming off a regular season in which they finished 27th in 3-point percentage, it’s OK to call that performance an outlier. Through five games, their 60.4 effective field goal percentage was 10.3 percent above what they were expected to shoot, according to Second Spectrum. No team has looked hotter in these playoffs than the Heat did against the Bucks in Round 1. Can Miami score enough without hemorrhaging on defense? Here are a few questions worth considering before the conference finals tip off.
Both cores know each other’s tendencies and impulses. This rematch promises to have several twists and turns, adjustments aplenty, and bad blood. Miami and Boston enter this series with the exact same defensive rating (111.0) after two rounds of competition and a disciplined, adaptable style of play that goes up a level when Butler channels prime Michael Jordan. But basketball isn’t played on paper Erik Spoelstra and Butler have proved too many people wrong for us to count them out.
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